Winter rainfall is projected to decrease by 2 to 13 per cent in Gisborne and 2 to 17 per cent in Napier by Spring rainfall is projected to decrease by 3 to 15 per cent in Gisborne and 2 to 13 per cent in Napier by However summer and autumn rainfall are both expected to increase. There may be an increase in westerly wind flow during winter and north-easterly wind flow during summer.
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Future changes in the frequency of storms are likely to be small compared to natural inter-annual variability. Some increase in storm intensity, local wind extremes and thunderstorms is likely to occur. The frequency of ex-tropical cyclones is projected to either decrease or remain unchanged over the 21st century; however they are likely be stronger and cause more damage as a result of heavy rain and strong winds.
New Zealand tide records show an average rise in relative mean sea level of 1. Globally, the rate of rise has increased, and further rise is expected in the future.
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The guidance was updated in December The values provided capture the range across all scenarios. They are based on scenario estimates and should not be taken as definitive. For more information, see the full report on climate projections. More frequent droughts are likely to lead to water shortages, increased demand for irrigation and increased risk of wild fires. Droughts are likely to increase in both intensity and duration. Coastal hazards — There may be increased risk to coastal roads and infrastructure from coastal erosion and inundation, increased storminess and sea-level rise.
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