Just over years later, the population had reached at least , refs 8 , On the basis of Bayesian analyses of large series of calibrated radiocarbon ages on moa from natural sites and moa eggshell from archaeological sites, constrained by the date for the pre-settlement Kaharoa eruption, we show that Polynesians settled in New Zealand in the early 14th century CE, and that moa went extinct in the early- to midth century CE. A small population of humans with a basic toolkit of stone tools and fire could, therefore, rapidly eliminate a megafauna by hunting and habitat destruction.
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Large human populations need not, therefore, necessarily be postulated in the models of megafaunal extinction elsewhere. The Bayesian probability distributions for the start and end of Polynesian interaction with moa hence the duration of that interaction are shown as Start and End, respectively, in Fig.
The mean span of the sequence of moa egg consumption was Comparing the periods of highest probability for the Kaharoa eruption and the onset of moa egg consumption would narrow the probable settlement date for the South Island to somewhere in or after the range to CE yellow bar in Fig. Human—moa interaction: Start, beginning of exploitation period; End, end of exploitation of moa eggs; both based on 93 14 C ages. Grey outline encompasses period of moa—Polynesian interaction. Highest probability is The HPD distribution for the end of the moa sequence—extinction in the whole South Island—was robust to repeated analysis.
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For example, results of a second run are also shown in Fig. The Bayesian analyses yield independent models: it is not appropriate to condense them to a joint mean and confidence interval. The probability distributions do not describe the time course of the event in North Canterbury and the South Island, but are estimates of the probability that extinction occurred in that date range. Both the Shcal04 and Shcal13 curves in OxCal 4.
The peak probability for its time of death was intermediate between the estimates for moa extinction in the eastern lowlands on the basis of natural and archaeological sites and that for moa extinction in the whole South Island Fig. The three youngest eggshell ages included here Supplementary Table 1 are all early 15th century CE.
The two eggs from Pounawea again could represent a relict population of Dinornis robustus in the remote Catlins Forest of eastern Southland. Several radiocarbon dates on moa remains have been cited 20 as evidence of later survival than is suggested by the rapid extinction model 3. However, all are either of questionable reliability or lie within the time span modelled in that study.
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The rapid extinction model 3 suggested that effective extinction took 60— years and not 50— years as is often cited 20 , The material used for these ages is difficult to date reliably, and the protocols that would be used now for such materials were not developed until well into the s ref. Their inclusion in the analysis would not materially change the results.
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The models suggest that, for all reasonable growth rates of the Polynesian population from its initial size Figs 4 and 5 , the population did not reach 2, individuals before CE Fig. Hence, the population densities for the South Island, for the eastern South Island, and for both main islands during the moa hunting period were among the lowest recorded for any recent hunter—gatherer culture Fig. Population growth at different annual rates during Polynesian prehistory of New Zealand from founding populations of , , , , individuals shown as 2, 3, 4 , 5, 6 at annual rates of: a 0.
Polynesian population in mid 17th century indicated by black star; short dash vertical line, extinction of eastern lowland moa populations; long dash vertical line; extinction of moa in South Island; thick grey vertical line, start of hill fort building; thin chain line, visit by Tasman; black line, first visit by James Cook. Short dash vertical line, extinction of eastern lowland moa populations; long dash vertical line; extinction of moa in South Island. See Figs 4 and 5 for derivation of growth rates. Densities calculated assuming 2.
Black symbols at CE indicate population densities of hunter—gatherer populations in 20th century Shaded rectangle, human population densities during main period of moa hunting, ending at CE: moa extinction in South Island by CE. Most recent commentary on the date of human settlement of New Zealand agrees that no archaeological horizons have been found sealed beneath the Kaharoa Tephra 16 , It has been suggested 27 , 28 that changes to the vegetation in several sediment profiles show that human settlement may have begun before the Kaharoa Tephra, and that the time is consistent with the CE date proposed for Wairau Bar However, non-archaeological data have been used in the past 29 , 30 to produce erroneous results 16 , The new quasi-decadal-scale chronology for the Polynesian settlement of New Zealand and the anthropogenic extinction of moa, on the basis of the agreement between the independent chronologies for moa extinction from the largest suites of 14 C ages ever applied to a megafaunal extinction , and for Polynesian settlement constrained by the eggshell chronology and the defining Kaharoa eruption set a limit on the period of human—moa interaction and hence on the size of the human population at the end of the period.
The agreement in timing and order of occurrence of these independent estimates of when the events defining the period of moa exploitation took place provide strong support for the new chronology, and also converge on the expectations of the rapid extinction model 3. The estimated human population size and density during the course of the extinction process could then be compared with those of recent populations of hunter—gatherers The early Polynesian settlers of the South Island are treated here as hunter—gatherers despite their long history of a horticulture-based culture, because of abundant evidence for significant exploitation of wild land and sea foods and sparse evidence for early gardening in the north-eastern South Island and none south of Banks Peninsula.
Population growth during the first century of occupation would, therefore, have been sustained largely by a reversion to hunter—gatherer economics, as when other cultures have encountered climates inimical to maintenance of their farming 32 , especially in the presence of abundant natural food resources. After having stable—or even slightly increasing—populations for the previous several thousand years 1 , moa became extinct in the South Island, as a result of hunting and habitat destruction 2 , 3 , 5 , before CE, years after the start of the archaeological record in New Zealand 4.
Moa populations were low in the mountainous and wet western areas 9 , 33 , so for humans to have eliminated their populations there in a few decades would not have been as difficult as might be imagined. European gold prospectors explored all but the most remote valleys between and The extinction across the entire South Island took at the most five moa generations 9 and was substantially complete within four human generations, insufficient time for the birds to develop anti-predation strategies It was during this period that the drier eastern forests of the South Island were removed by anthropogenic burning and replaced by tussock grasslands 5 , removing the most productive moa habitat, which contained the most diverse and densest moa populations 3 , 9.
For the eastern South Island, where humans were actively hunting moa throughout the 14th century, the independent natural and archaeological chronologies gave the same extinction period. This agreement, the contemporary elimination of most moa habitat in the area 5 and the number of samples from sites preserving bird material through to the present, suggest that there would be no significant Signor—Lipps effect, with moa surviving beyond the probability distributions for local extinction. Similarly, it is unlikely that, given the similar available dates of last occurrence and the lower numbers of moa living in the lower productivity multi-tier forest that dominated in the North Island 3 , 9 , moa survived later there than in the South Island.
The loss of resources and an increasing population drove Polynesians to start building forts to defend horticultural resources within two centuries of settlement Fig. The large number of 14 C ages allows the definition of a remarkably brief period between human arrival and complete megafaunal extinction in New Zealand, which contrasts sharply with the less clear-cut histories of extinctions in the Northern Hemisphere and Australia 35 , for both of which adequate dating materials are scarce by comparison.
The North American event took several thousand years 37 , long enough for the development of new hunting tool kits Other classic megafauna such as mammoths 39 , 40 and giant deer 40 survived well into the Holocene in peripheral areas, long after humans had recovered their pre-glacial distributions. Polynesians and moa co-existed for, at the very most, of the or so years between settlement and the start of continuous European presence, or roughly one-quarter of the total prehistoric period. The extinction events on those continents were, even if they played out over several centuries or a few millennia, followed by proportionately much longer periods of human presence.
Most of the growth in their human populations would have taken place during the period when both the people and the environment were adapting to the loss of the megafauna. Human population sizes during the initial, comparatively ill-defined, stages of human occupation of America and Australia are little known; but in both, the effects were seemingly out of proportion to the size of the human populations.
The demographics of long-lived vertebrates are such that for even a stable or increasing population 1 , a slight reduction in adult survivorship by the onset of low-level human predation leads inevitably to extinction 3. In a New Zealand environment that lacked large mammalian predators, the arrival of a new efficient predator 43 sealed their fate The extinction of moa in New Zealand provides a unique window into what might have happened in the critical decades and centuries that followed the arrival of tiny populations of humans among megafauna elsewhere.
Bone samples from the North Canterbury sites were collected from the mid-shaft of the tibiotarsus and subdivided for the different analyses. One radiocarbon age was determined by Beta Analytic, Florida. Samples from genetically identified moa of four taxa from North Canterbury are listed in Supplementary Table 1.
Ages from other sources 2 , 10 , 33 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 used in the analyses, including 29 ages for morphologically identified material from the rest of the South Island, 32 ages on genetically identified individuals of Pachyornis elephantopus and P. All radiocarbon ages were calibrated using the most recent Southern Hemisphere curves, using DateLab 3. All dates were treated as coming from a phase occurring as a single series. Within that phase there were no prior constraints on the relative age of any of the dates.
The analysis was made to estimate the date at which the dated events occurred and to provide age estimates for the phase of activity within which the dated events took place conventional radiocarbon ages are given in Supplementary Table 1. The analysis assumes that the date of interest is when moa ceased to be available for deposition in natural sites, that is, the date of the end of the phases of moa presence within the catchment areas of each of the date sets. Each of the date sets Supplementary Table 1 was run 10 times with sample step sizes varying between 10, and , steps in 10,step increments , collecting 30, samples per run, to ensure that there were no sampling artefacts in the results.
The results can be regarded as free of sampling artefacts. To refine the period of moa—Polynesian interaction, we subjected AMS 14 C ages on 93 genetically distinguished 49 pieces of moa eggshell recovered from seven early Polynesian sites covering the whole eastern seaboard of the South Island to Bayesian statistical analysis Supplementary Table 1. Moa eggshell is an excellent, short-life dating material 26 that also defines the presence of female moa and therefore, potentially, of a breeding population. The dated specimens were from five sites in North Canterbury, 43 sites distributed throughout the South Island and two on Stewart Island Fig.
To determine the human population during and at the end of the period of moa exploitation, we modelled population growth for the period between Polynesian settlement and European landing, assuming both constant rates and higher rates during the initial period. Assuming higher rates during the early Polynesian period takes into account the possibility of higher fecundity and survivorship while substantial resources of protein and fat were available from pinnipeds and large birds.
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Rates of population increase of 0. Founding populations were set at , , , , individuals, covering the range of values estimated from genetic evidence 7. To ensure growth rates that would avoid underestimating the Polynesian population of New Zealand at moa extinction, the population estimated by James Cook in ref. In addition, a scenario in which the population growth rate fell from a maximal 2. How to cite this article : Holdaway, R. An extremely low-density human population exterminated New Zealand moa.
Allentoft, M. Extinct New Zealand megafauna were not in decline before human colonization. Natl Acad. USA , — Anderson, A. Press Holdaway, R. Rapid extinction of the moas Aves: Dinornithiformes : model, test, and implications. Science , — That is because we are a country where a lot of business is done with people we know or their brother or their auntie! When you are new in a country, it is often easier to stick with your own culture and make most of your friends among people who are like you - from your own country or ethnic group. It is true that other newcomers can provide valuable support in your early days here.
It is good to have someone to talk to who understands what you are going through if things become difficult. Newcomers networks are a good place to find people who are likely to relate to your experiences. But remember to also keep sowing the seeds of friendship with the wider community. Kiwis usually have a wide range of acquaintances and a small group of friends.